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ASEAN-China South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations

Latest development

Analysts expect only limited code-of-conduct progress at the Cebu summit

Key takeaways

  • ASEAN and China are still publicly defending a 2026 end-date, so each negotiating round now tests whether the timetable is political messaging or a real delivery path.
  • The main unresolved obstacles remain enforcement, legal effect, scope, and compliance, which will determine whether any eventual text changes behavior at sea.
  • The Cebu summit is the next visible checkpoint for whether April's procedural progress turns into stronger leader-level direction.

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