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OPEC and OPEC+ oil-cuts geopolitics timeline

Latest development

Iraq output stays above 4 million bpd as June implementation nears

Key takeaways

  • The UAE's departure tests whether OPEC+ can keep coordinated supply policy credible with a major spare-capacity producer outside the pact.
  • June's small quota increase may stay mostly symbolic unless Iraq, Kazakhstan and other members align real output with compensation promises.
  • War-linked and Hormuz-related disruption means formal quota easing and physical supply are no longer moving in lockstep.

Timeline