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Early-May clashes around Hormuz showed the ceasefire was still unstable
Key takeaways
- The conflict's center has moved from air strikes to control of Hormuz, so shipping and regional energy flows remain exposed even without full-scale bombing.
- Washington's claim that hostilities are terminated while blockade and strike options remain blurs the line between ceasefire enforcement and open-ended war.
- Any durable settlement now depends on linking enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and maritime access, which makes small incidents capable of derailing talks.
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